“God is great…beer is good…and [the stock market] is crazy”, as those catchy country and western lyrics go. To be truly accurate with the lyrics sung by Billy Currington, people are crazy. It was people, not the market, who invented both the 12-month buffalo run and a prairie load of problems and uncertainty about whether or not the wild herd would get moving again. Right now, other people going crazy about not being invested and missing out on the stampede might do well to wait it out longer. And those of us who have been where the buffalo roam might raise, at least, a bit of cash while trying to guess if markets have passed their 2010 topping out already.

Reasons for uncertainty are enough to fill the potholes of Toronto. Still not covered over will be the fallout from the Icelanders’ financial wizardry as well as their pet volcano, the Mediterranean mid-summer misery, U.S. housing and banking wreckage, the big question about the future pace of the China miracle and now the future of offshore oil activity.

But, the stickiest worry might prove to be the flash crash of May 6 repeated without the flash. This is where the investment scene seems to have gone really crazy - a steady blue chip like Proctor & Gamble down 35 per cent on the NYSE in two minutes and also plunging simultaneously twice as deeply over high-frequency computer systems.

Commodity prices most of the time show revival traits which seem to be good for the Canadian resources stock market, though it is difficult to interpret inventory numbers, the role of powerful private speculators including ETFs and other confusions. For example, I learned from an expert speaking at a recent Desjardins conference on commodities that gauging potash demand can be very tricky: potash can be mobile in the ground and supporting years of cultivation before it is rinsed from the soil.

However, as an old stock picker for whom all market conditions can work well, I cannot keep my hands off ideas especially if they look “safe” in current conditions. One is Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. (ATH-TSX). ATH recently went through its IPO priced at the top of the stated $16-$18 range and then collapsed, taking down subscribers who received only a one-third fill in the IPO distribution. That included Canadian General Investments (CGI-TSX) for which I asked for $10 million worth of stock. I bought a small amount for myself and also averaged down for the Fund at $10.43. Here’s why:

ATH is an impressive outcome of years of accumulation of lands and is likely destined to be one of the biggest producers despite its late arrival on the scene. It is already funded for start-up by China’s participation. Planned production of 30,000 to 50,000 barrels a day at the onset could rise to half a billion barrels over time.

It is planning conventional and unconventional prospects for SAGD and perhaps some cyclic steam stimulation, but no mining and tailings ponds in the conventional mode.

Among three assets outside the PetroChina joint ventures, ATH has Dover West, which offers in part an unconventional extraction challenge of oil from carbonate rock containing an estimated 65 billion barrels in its Leduc deposits. Elsewhere, in the Grosmont, ATH has a similar 318 billion barrels in place; all awaiting the ingenuity of the ”western and country” oilman.

The market’s destruction of the Athabasca Oil Sands IPO is multi-faceted. Lead underwriters Morgan Stanley and GMP maximised on the pricing and doubled the issue as big Far East sovereign interests came in, presumably for long-term oil reserves. Disappointed traders exited and so did investors who had made a killing through lower priced private placements started in 2006. Others joined the play in the pre-IPO grey market up to the $18.50 level. Positive signs have been big purchases in the $18 issue by the founders, many of whom were buyers again after the IPO.

The main hindrance I see right now is that production start-up is not due until 2014, whereas the assets are priced very cheaply by any calculation and a rising oil price should be a big accelerator of recovery. I am not depending on that.

Another “safe if not certain” idea that has dragged me (not exactly kicking and screaming) into the market revolves around the chromite play in the so-called Ring of Fire in remote northern Ontario. A few months ago I saw there was still 10 per cent left on the table in the Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF-NYSE) buyout of Freewest Resources, which appears to be the main junior holder of the newly discovered chromite.

Luck also came my way because the Cliffs shares I received in exchange moved from the $55 level to $75, presumably on several strengths. Cliffs is the largest producer of iron pellets in North America and at eight million tons is a large North American met-coal producer.

Now we have a kind of repeat phase. Two weeks ago, I was pondering two other chromite juniors in the play, Spider Resources (SPQ-TSX/VEN) and KWG Resources (KWG-TSX/VEN); these traded down to eight cents from 14 cents in the correction and – darn it – got fired up back to the 14 cents level when Cliffs made a bid for the pair.

Posturing, I suspect, the twins immediately came up with a merger plan for themselves – perhaps not a realistic alternative given the big capital investment eventually needed. Could it be one that forces a slightly higher payment by Cliffs? This play could take several directions not excluding an eventual takeout of Cliffs itself. It has other assets around the globe and might attract a powerful buyer.

(The plots thicken since this article was published. Spider Resources has indeed risen by more than 30 per cent on an agreed takeout by Cliffs and KWG is left out in the cold but holds about 25 per cent of the chromite asset, a royalty, a $2.3 million break fee from Spider and a holding of 250,000 Spider shares it says it will not tender to Cliffs).

Chromite is essential for stainless steel and is mined almost exclusively in South Africa and Kazakhstan. A 400-kilometre rail route would open up the remote Ontario territory, where Noront Resources Ltd. (NOT-TSX/VEN) has chromite and an interesting polymetallic prospect. McDonald Mines Exploration Ltd. (BMK-TSX/VEN) is also getting excited about drilling results (caution: these two are not being bid for and I have owned both for some time).

Away from resources, I think a buy for relative safety in a stormy market, and growth and income, is a new real estate investment trust, Brookfield Office Properties Canada (BOX.UN-TSX). This is the only A-grade office-property major in Canada. Canadian General Investments is one of only three significant minority investors, long positioned at $9.33; the regular distribution more than doubles on the conversion from a corporation and the minority are promised greater share liquidity. The REIT has about two-thirds of its important Bay/Adelaide block in Toronto still to develop and, hopefully, other plans in the scarce quality space.

I made my first personal purchase only recently around the current price. This approximates present book value, which is not high enough for the star Brookfield Group’s aspirations. Perhaps this is a good one to sit with while we watch out for the next wild buffalo run.